Saturday, December 13, 2008

Shared Intuitions of Justice

Is your sense of justice reasoned and rational or is it intuitive? Is your sense of justice cultural or innate? Can people reach an easy consensus about which punishment should fit which crime?

According to University of Pennsylvania Law professor Paul H. Robinson, our sense of justice is intuitive and has a remarkable degree of agreement across various cultures. This is based on several studies where people were given either 12 or 24 scenarios (depending on the study) ranging from opportunistic theft to premeditated murder and asked to rank them according to how severe the punishment should be in each case. What has been consistently found is that people of all walks of life and from myriad diverse cultures tended to rank all the crimes in the same order and with a Kendall's W of 0.95 (for those of you not fluent in statistics, that pretty much means incontrovertible universal agreement).

The important thing to remember here is that the universal agreement is on the ranking and relative severity of punishment and not the absolute severity of retribution. In other words, people of different backgrounds will disagree about specific punishments for given transgressions, but they will rank the various transgressions virtually identically. As an analogy, this would be like people from different backgrounds having different measurements for the distance from New York to San Francisco. One person might say it's 2,905 miles, and another might say it's 4.685 kilometers. But both will readily agree that Denver is roughly halfway between them. So if you can get people to agree on a number for the distance between New York and San Francisco, it follows that they will subsequently agree on the distance to Denver, etc. Likewise, people tend to have a surprisingly close agreement on relative degrees of punishment. And when the maximum punishment allowed on their respective scales match up, so do the penalties for everything else.

In the 24 scenario studies, the subjects were asked to rank all the scenarios in order. But in the 12 scenario studies, they were given a punishment scale and asked to place each scenario on the scale based on what penalty was merited. They were also given actual court cases and asked to rank them too. The chart below (from Paul H. Robinson's presentation) shows how people ranked those scenarios and real life cases. The 12 test scenarios are on the left, and the real life cases are on the right.


Click on chart to embiggen (I don't know who coined that word, but I stole it from Phil.)

The most interesting thing about this chart is the disagreement on the right side of the chart between the solid and dotted lines. The solid lines represent how the subjects (in other words, most/almost all people) thought those crimes should be punished, and the dotted lines represent how the criminal justice system is mandated to and actually did sentence those offenders.

What we're seeing is a major disconnect between how people view justice; how they think it ought to be; how they think it is; and how it's actually doled out. There are many reasons why this might be so. Perhaps the architects of the criminal justice system simply don't recognize the intuitive nature of justice and instead try to find a rational algorithm by which to base justice--only to have it run counter to what most everybody considers to be fair. Or perhaps it's the result of noncontextual framing. Even with the scenarios where everyone agrees on their relative ranking, if those scenarios are separated from the pack and framed and argued in terms of absolute penalties, people can easily be fooled into temporarily agreeing with unfair retribution. Regardless, it's a problem. The criminal justice system doesn't work unless the populace trusts it. But if the relative penalties clash with people's intuitions, then it loses credibility with the very people it needs in order to be more than just some draconian ruffian institution. (And don't even get me started on the inherent injustice that is the infinite and dichotomous nature of reward and punishment prescribed in the hereafter according to many popular religions today.)

If you have 90 minutes, I highly recommend watching Professor Robinson's talk on this subject.

Tuesday, December 09, 2008

Paul Krugman Nobel lecture



Yesterday, economist and columnist Paul Krugman accepted the 2008 Nobel Prize in economics. To watch his lecture on new theories about International trade, click on the above picture.

Monday, December 08, 2008

Sir Rupert vs. Prop 8

Shan, a YouTube friend of mine was recently featured on YouTube's front page with a prop 8 protest video done in nursery rhyme form.

Enjoy!

Sunday, December 07, 2008

MoralMaster 2.0 Add-on Pack

Remember the MoralMaster 2.0? Well it seems that they finally released an add-on pack with the missing questions.

Saturday, December 06, 2008

I'm a Beer Runner now!



Last Thursday I joined a local running club. After a month of doing virtually no exercise, it felt good to get out. I realized that I was a little out of shape and so was going to have to take it slowly. The run was perfect for that--it was a 2.9 mile jog to a place called The Prohibition Taproom.

I started off nice and easy like everybody else. Then somehow, through my own stupidity, I ended running behind the really fast guy who was trying to get in a short work out. Needless to say, that didn't last long. I found someone else who was running about my pace (Eric) and we jogged down to the bar. When I got there I felt surprisingly good.

After a few beers (That is the secondary--or primary, depending on who you ask--purpose of the club), I felt even better! That was when club president Dave asked me a question.

Dave: Do you need a ride back?

Stupid, moronic, hubris-filled, idiot Javier: No thanks. Is there anybody who wants to jog back with me?


I never left the house yesterday, and I'm still sore today. Let's see how I do next week.

Unemployment

As I write this post, I am entering my second month of unemployment. I had been at my last job for 10 years when I was unceremoniously let go. Of course I was not alone last month; I was one of 533,000 who have joined the now 10.3 million unemployed. The picture looks quite dismal.



The horrible thing is that the unemployment picture is actually much worse that the above picture would lead you to believe. You see, unemployment figures only measure the number of people who file unemployment claims with the government. A more sobering metric is percent employment: in other words, # people employed/population. Granted, this includes (as far as I know) children and retirees, but it also includes the multitudes who no longer qualify for unemployment benefits, or never qualified because they were employed part time, or have just given up looking for work. I know people in those categories.

Below is a chart (which I shamelessly stole from Paul Krugman) showing the trend of percent employment over the last 10 years.



What I'm seeing above is an honest representation of what the Bush XLIII presidency has done to the American worker. Bush has been a complete failure and his riddance is beyond good. But I'm not a veritable pessimist and I do have a great deal of hope for the future.

Friday, November 28, 2008

Friday Cephalopod: Octu Vishnu

I hope Greg Laden doesn't think that he's the only one who can muscle in on PZ's territory.



Octu Vishnu from the 2008 Kensington Kinetic Sculpture Derby.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

MoralMaster 2.0 Morality Monitor

It appears that I'm not a very moral person.

Friday, November 21, 2008

Louis CK is great!

I've been a fan of Louis CK for quite a while now. But I was just reminded of him by this latest post by Phil Plait. (I highly suggest that you watch the Conan interview on Phil's post!) Anyway, the video below (I can't remember if I posted it before) is the reason that I first became a Louis CK fan. Anyone who can make me laugh so hard that I cry, just by making fun of the Catholic Church (Dave Allen, RIP), is a genius in my book.

I've been tagged!

I've been tagged by The Darwin Report. Here are the rules of the tag game:

1. Link to the person who tagged you.
2. Post the rules on your blog.
3. Write six random things about yourself.
4. Tag six people at the end of your post and link to them.
5. Let each person know they’ve been tagged and leave a comment on their blog.
6. Let the tagger know when your entry is up.


Geez Louise!!! OK, I've faithfully completed the first two assignments, let's see how well I do on the others.

6 arbitrary facts about myself:

1. Wait a minute! Wasn't I supposed to post 6 random facts about myself? Indeed! Arbitrary fact #1 is that I hate it when people use the word random when what they really mean is arbitrary. Clearly, if I'm picking the 6 facts, then they're arbitrary. The only way that they could be considered random would be if you defined random to mean unrelated. But that flies in the face of most common usages of the word. (It might also work if I picked the facts out of a hat, but then which facts to put into the hat was still an arbitrary decision. So I guess in that case, the facts would be both random and arbitrary.) These facts are just arbitrary. I guess that means that technically, I broke one of the rules. (It won't be the last one I break.)

2. I sleep with a pillow between my legs.

3. I make my own wine. I make it from kits, so no growing or crushing of grapes, but who knows what the future will hold.

4. My grandfather's name was Darwin. My great-grandfather was Irish Catholic, and my great-grandmother was Protestant. Back during the turn of the century (not this latest one, but the one before) this kind of mixed marriage was frowned upon and my great-grandparents were quickly disowned by their respective families. They became Unitarians and named their son Darwin. I'm guessing that part of the motivation for the latter had to do with my grandfather being born in 1909. Anyone following the festivities planned for 2009 will recognize the significance of that date. This certainly wasn't lost on my great-grandmother who was a big fan of science and nature and history (or at least I'm told so).

5. My nephew is named Darwin. OK, so he hasn't been born yet and Darwin is his middle name. (His first name is Rafael--also a family name: from my father's side. Or maybe my sister named him after a turtle.)

As a math buff, I would so love the beautiful numerical symmetry of young RADAR being born in 2009. However he is due before then, and I certainly don't wish an extra half month of pregnancy on my sister for the sake of symmetry. Or dooo I?

6. This evening, after a really nice lecture by Janet Browne, I was stood up by PZ Myers! After promising to show up for Drinking Skeptically, he decided to ditch us instead. In all fairness, he did warn me that he would be late, but the word late implies actually showing up! PZ did no such thing! Can you even begin to imagine my shame? Several people at DS asked "Do you think that PZ Myers will show?" I assured them all that since I had just spoken with him and he said he would be running late, that indeed he was going to show up. What a fool I was! Fool me once, call me a ... er... won't get fooled again. ;-)

Back to the instructions: Consider #'s 5 & 6 to be done. That leaves #4 (Tag six people at the end of your post and link to them.) to resolve. Once again, I'm going to break the rules. I had several people in mind (including a fellow whose surname is spelled just like the al Quaida kingpin, but he's surely busy counting votes), have decided to tag only one other. I tag PZed Myers!! It is well known that he has an unhealthy obsession with spineless creatures, but will he pay his penance and not be spineless himself? How dare he skip out on our skeptical night!! We had great conversations about physics, philosophy and Religulous, all of which you missed out on.

PZed! You (at the very least) owe us a "6 facts" tag post! Get on it!!!

Friday, November 07, 2008

Fail for the Win!

This video is predictable, but hilarious!

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Vote!

GO VOTE NOW!!!

In the meantime, here's a little Randy Newman-esque song from the Code Monkey dancer.

Friday, October 31, 2008

Life of a Pumpkin

Sorry for the late posting, but please consider this a revival of my old Friday Madness series.

Monday, October 27, 2008

The Vet who did not vet.

This was just too cute not to share.

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Friday, October 10, 2008

The Devil In Dover

What does it mean to be objective? The current meme seems to be that objective means "unbiased" and balanced. The trouble is that no human thought is unbiased, and balanced coverage isn't always (or even usually) truthful. I firmly believe that it's important to get every side of a debate before making an informed decision, but He Said, She Said coverage makes opposite positions seem equal when most often there is quite a disparity. Cenk Uygur of The Young Turks likes to say that if sports reporters acted like the mainstream media, then every game would be a tie or a nail-biter--even when it was a clear blow-out! And New York Times columnist Paul Krugman famously said "If Bush said the Earth was flat, the mainstream media would have stories with the headline: 'Shape of Earth - Views Differ.' Then they'd quote some Democrats saying that it was round."

The above examples may seem like blatant hyperbole, but any informed reader who's familiar with the mainstream media's science coverage will recognize that they're not that far off. Science deals with verifiable facts. From a scientific perspective, "balance" means that every competing hypothesis (theoretically) gets the same chance to methodically test it's claims. But claims that fail the test don't get to sit at the same table as those that are tried and true. It would be nice if journalism worked the same way. But wait, it's supposed to. Here's a quote from an essay by the Committee Of Concerned Journalists that spells it out perfectly.

Perhaps because the discipline of verification is so personal and so haphazardly communicated, it is also part of one of the great confusions of journalism- the concept of objectivity. The original meaning of this idea is now thoroughly misunderstood, and by and large lost.

When the concept originally evolved, it was not meant to imply that journalists were free of bias. Quite the contrary. The term began to appear as part of journalism after the turn of the century, particularly in the 1920s, out of a growing recognition that journalists were full of bias, often unconsciously. Objectivity called for journalists to develop a consistent method of testing information- a transparent approach to evidence- precisely so that personal and cultural biases would not undermine the accuracy of their work.


This is quite different from the "balanced" approach that dominates the media today. This can clearly be seen in how the Intelligent Design "controversy" was covered. This attempt to be balanced and unbiased led to charlatans and prevaricators being given a stage that they neither earned nor deserved. One of the shining lights of truly objective journalism during the whole debacle was Lauri Lebo. Her newest book The Devil In Dover, details her account as a reporter covering the Kitzmiller v. Dover Area School District trial in central Pennsylvania over teaching Intelligent Design.



Lauri tells the tale of the trial from when the idea of teaching Creationism was first floated to the aftermath. The reader gets to meet all the defendants and admire them for their courage. You get to see the lawyers from the ACLU, NCSE, and Pepper-Hamilton plan their tactics and strategy for the trial. You get to really see the contrast between Brown Biology professor (and author of textbook Biology) and defense witness, Lehigh University biology professor (and author of the critically panned Darwin's Black Box).

This was exciting for me since I was one of those who followed the trial as it unfolded. Reading this book was like reliving the trial, but being there. What I really found to be new was that I also got to "meet" the plaintiffs. As a local, Lauri Lebo actually knew Bill Buckingham (who attended the same church as her born-again father) and other school board members. These were basically good people who were willing to lie to advance their agenda. I know, it sounds like an inherent contradiction, but when saving souls is more important than not bearing false witness (or just about any other virtue), than anything pretty much goes. I can't say that I particularly like any of those board members more since reading The Devil In Dover, but I do feel that I've been given a window (or at least a peephole) into their motives. I'm sure that I wouldn't much care for any of those characters (or even Dean Lebo) if I ever met them had I not been given that window. The defendant's lawyers from the Thomas More Law Center didn't come off quite as sympathetically. But that might just be that Lauri never quite got to know them as well--or maybe they were that much slimier.

But make no mistake, the heroes of the book are most certainly the parents, teachers and lawyers on the plaintiff's side. They stood up to ignorance and won! Here's a couple of paragraphs from the end of the book that talk about the atmosphere in Dover science classes after the trial.

Rob Eshbach sat with students in quiet classrooms after school, speaking of balancing science with his faith. Jen Miller inspired students to gaze down long hallways and into our past. But these children of pastors always taught evolution with trepidation, afraid of offending creationist beliefs. This year, that's changed. Miler has revamped the biology curriculum. The teaching of evolutionary theory will no longer be crammed into a handful of days out of the school year. Now teachers start with evolution—because everything in biology builds from the theory.

Bryan Rehm says Dover high school is now the safest place in the country to teach science. Attacks on evolution continue in other classrooms, in other places, quietly, out of sight of newspaper reporters and public scrutiny. But not in Dover. Too many people are now watching.


This is exactly right because as Theodosius Dobzhansky said, "Nothing in Biology Makes Sense Except in the Light of Evolution." The fact that most high schools in this country still teach evolution as an afterthought or just a minor aspect of biology is criminal. Even more criminal (as stated in the second paragraph from the above quote) is that attacks on evolution are still widespread. Why can't it be "safe to teach science" everywhere?

Verdict: Buy the book!

UPDATED: Video of Lauri Lebo talking to the Freethought Society of Greater Philadelphia

Friday, September 19, 2008

Sing like a pirate!

In honor of Talk Like A Pirate Day, I bring you the latest spiffworld video.

Thursday, September 04, 2008

Who's kingdom?

I was browsing through The "Blog" of "Unnecessary" Quotation Marks today when I saw yesterday's post. Haha! It just speaks for itself.

Wednesday, September 03, 2008

Moon transit shot from EPOXI spacecraft

EPOXI's Spacecraft Observes the Earth-Moon System



Videos of the Moon transiting the Earth, as imaged by NASA's EPOXI spacecraft, were made from the still images collected when EPOXI's spacecraft imaged the Earth-Moon system on 28-29 May 2008. When the images were acquired, the spacecraft was just outside the orbit of the Earth and ahead of Earth by 31 million miles, 1/3 AU, making it as far from Earth as Mercury is from the Sun.


(via APOD)